Number of “severely burdened renters” expected to grow over next decade

The number of rental households spending more than 50 percent of their income on rent is expected to rise at least 11 percent from 11.8 million to 13.1 million by 2025, according to new research by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) and Enterprise Community Partners Inc (Enterprise).

The recently-released Projecting Trends in Severely Cost-Burdened Renters: 2015-2025 stated that in 2013, when the statistics were last checked, more than 25 percent of renters, or 11.2 million rental households, were “severely burdened by their rent payments, which took up at least half their income.” While the total number was less than the record level of 11.3 million, set in 2011, it was still alarming. According to the report, the number has risen to more than 3 million rental households since the start of the millennium.

Researchers believe rental households will continue to grow over the next 10 years, but do not anticipate income or rent expenses to change.

“There is little prospect for substantial improvement in these conditions over the coming decade,” the report stated.

Over the next decade, it is expected that the adult population in the country will increase by 10 percent, or 24.6 million people, bringing the total to 272 million people.

The study believes that household growth will go beyond 12.4 million in the next 10 years, and that rental households will increase by 4.2 million people.

Based on their research, severely burdened renters will grow 11 percent from 11.8 million in 2015, to 13.1 million in 2025.

“Our analysis shows that even in the unlikely event that income growth greatly outpaces rent gains, the number of severely cost-burdened renters will remain near current record levels,” said Christopher Herbert, managing director of Harvard’s JCHS. “Given these data, it is critical for policymakers at all levels of government to prioritize the preservation and development of affordable rental housing as there are simply not enough quality, affordable rental units to provide housing for the millions of households paying over half their income in rental costs.”