Despite the colder temperatures, most residential brokers are expecting the first quarter of 2022 to remain hot.
According to RISMedia’s Broker Confidence Index, the majority of brokers are expecting the first quarter to have either the same amount or more of both sales volume and transactions as the third quarter of 2021. While the housing market typically slows down in the winter months, most brokers are confident it will remain stable as we head into 2022.
According to the report, 57% of respondents reported closing more transactions in the third quarter of 2021 compared to the second quarter. (Data from the fourth quarter was not yet available.) Twenty-six percent reported that the third quarter was just as active as the second, while only 17% reported a decrease as summer turned into fall. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of brokers surveyed said sales volume was up, while 17% said it remained the same. Only 9% reported a decrease in sales volume in the third quarter. Close to half (47%) of brokers cited buyer and seller demand as the catalyst to the growth in the market, while 17% said inventory was the main reason. Price appreciation was another factor, said 17%.
Looking forward, brokers are expecting this first quarter of 2022 to be steady, as 43% expect residential transactions to be the same, 35% predict a drop and 22% predict an uptick. Most brokers report feeling the same way about residential sales volume during the same period, as 42% predict it will remain the same, 34% expect it to rise and 23% expect to see a decrease. Brokers cited continued lack of inventory, rising interest rates and growing concerns about COVID-19 and variants as potential hiccups in this quarter.